Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Talent Gap Too Large: FBS vs FCS matchup creates unpredictable variance in blowout scenarios
• Incomplete Data: No advanced stats available for South Dakota limits analytical confidence
• Coaching Strategy: Iowa State likely to pull starters early, limiting final margin

Risk Factors to Consider:

• FCS opponent unpredictability
• Early substitutions limiting margin
• Lack of South Dakota analytical data

Technical Analysis:

Iowa State's strong 2024 metrics (0.189 offensive PPA, solid 1621 ELO) suggest they should dominate, but FCS vs FBS games create too much variance in garbage time scenarios. Without South Dakota's advanced metrics, proper modeling is impossible.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

While Iowa State should absolutely dominate this game against an FCS opponent, betting on large spreads in these mismatched games is incredibly risky and unpredictable. The Cyclones will likely build a big lead early, but once they start pulling their starters in the third quarter, the final margin becomes a complete wild card that has little to do with actual team quality. FCS teams like South Dakota often play much more competitively in the second half when facing backup players, making it nearly impossible to predict whether the final margin will be 14 points or 35 points. Iowa State is clearly the much better team and should win easily, but there's no reliable way to determine if they'll cover this large spread. Smart money stays away from these unpredictable FBS versus FCS blowout situations regardless of which side looks tempting.