Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• ELO Rating Advantage: Ohio State has significant 113-point ELO advantage (1974 vs 1861) suggesting they're the stronger team
• Home Field Advantage: Playing at Ohio Stadium provides additional 2-3 point boost in hostile environment
• Offensive Efficiency Edge: Ohio State's 2024 offense was more explosive (0.376 vs 0.247 PPA) with better red zone scoring
• Defensive Performance: Both defenses similar but Ohio State allowed fewer points per opportunity (1.86 vs 2.39)

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Heavy roster turnover for both teams makes early season unpredictable
• Line has moved toward Texas suggesting sharp money on the underdog
• Big game atmosphere could lead to early mistakes and variance

Technical Analysis:

Ohio State's 113-point ELO advantage combined with home field suggests they should be favored by 4-5 points. Their superior 2024 offensive efficiency (0.376 vs 0.247 PPA) and better red zone defense (1.86 vs 2.39 points per opportunity) support the statistical edge despite heavy roster turnover concerns.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

Ohio State comes into this season opener as a slight 2-point favorite, but that line feels too low given how much better they were than Texas last season. The Buckeyes were significantly more efficient moving the ball in 2024, averaging more points per drive and creating more explosive plays on offense. While both teams lost key players from last year, Ohio State's recruiting and transfer portal activity has been elite, and they're playing at home in front of 100,000+ screaming fans at the Shoe. Texas struggled more in the red zone last season and allowed more points when opponents got into scoring position, which could be crucial in a tight game. Getting Ohio State at just 2 points at home against a team they outperformed significantly last year represents solid value.