Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• FCS vs FBS Mismatch: Talent gap exists but spread already accounts for this differential
• Limited Data Available: No advanced stats for Bryant makes accurate projection impossible
• New Mexico State Roster Turnover: Lost significant offensive production with only 33.6% rushing and 54.1% receiving returning

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Massive spread creates blowout variance
• Week 1 uncertainty with limited data
• New Mexico State integration issues with new players

Technical Analysis:

Insufficient data to make a confident projection. Bryant lacks advanced metrics, and New Mexico State's low returning production percentages (especially -26% passing) create uncertainty about offensive effectiveness in Week 1.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

This game features Bryant, an FCS team, traveling to face New Mexico State in what should be a mismatch on paper. However, the 19-point spread already reflects this talent gap, and New Mexico State has some concerning factors heading into the season opener. The Aggies lost a significant amount of their offensive production from last year and will be relying heavily on new players to fill key roles. While they should win this game comfortably, covering nearly three touchdowns against any opponent in Week 1 is always challenging when you're still figuring out your identity. The smart play here is to sit this one out and wait for more favorable spots with better information.