Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Elo Rating Advantage: Bowling Green has a massive 312-point Elo advantage (1422 vs 1110), indicating significantly superior overall team strength
• Home Field Advantage: Playing at home provides additional ~40 Elo point boost, compounding Bowling Green's statistical edge
• Defensive Efficiency Edge: Bowling Green allows 0.193 adjusted EPA vs Central Michigan's 0.220, showing better defensive performance against quality competition
• Line Movement: Market opened at BG -5.5 to -6.5 and moved to -4.5, creating value as our model still sees larger margin

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Both teams have similar offensive efficiency metrics
• Central Michigan has slightly better red zone scoring efficiency

Technical Analysis:

Bowling Green holds a massive 312-point Elo advantage (1422 vs 1110) and shows better adjusted defensive EPA (0.193 vs 0.220). With home field adding ~40 Elo points, the true line should be closer to 6.8 points, making the current 4.5 spread excellent value.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

Bowling Green is getting a great opportunity here as 4.5-point home favorites against Central Michigan in what should be a comfortable victory. The Falcons are simply the much stronger team overall, with computer ratings showing them as significantly superior to the Chippewas across most key metrics. Central Michigan has struggled defensively this season, allowing opponents to move the ball effectively, while Bowling Green has been more solid on that side of the ball. The betting line opened higher at 5.5 to 6.5 points but moved down to 4.5, likely due to public money backing the underdog, creating excellent value for the stronger home team. This MAC conference matchup sets up perfectly for Bowling Green to control the game at home and win by at least a touchdown.