Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Massive spread size: 50+ point spreads are extremely volatile and unpredictable
• FCS vs FBS mismatch: No reliable advanced stats for FCS opponent creates uncertainty
• Limited roster continuity: SMU returning only 50% of production with major receiving corps turnover

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Enormous spread creates variance
• Week 1 unpredictability
• SMU motivation concerns in blowout
• No FCS opponent data

Technical Analysis:

While SMU's 1717 ELO suggests dominance over FCS East Texas A&M, the 50+ point spread is too large to reliably predict. Limited roster continuity (50% returning production, only 32% receiving) adds Week 1 uncertainty that makes this an avoid.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

This is exactly the type of bet that looks tempting but should be avoided at all costs. When you see spreads this massive (50+ points), you're essentially betting on whether the favored team will keep their foot on the gas pedal for four full quarters against an overmatched opponent. SMU is clearly the much better team here, but they lost a lot of key players from last season and this is their first game with many new faces trying to gel together. History shows us that these gigantic spreads are incredibly unpredictable because once a team gets up big, they often take their starters out, stop trying as hard, and let the backup players get experience. Even if SMU wins by 35 points, you'd still lose your bet, and that's just not worth the risk no matter how good SMU looks on paper.