Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• FCS vs FBS Mismatch: Extreme talent differential makes line prediction unreliable
• No Advanced Stats Available: Cannot properly evaluate Illinois State's capabilities
• High Variance Spot: Blowout games can swing wildly based on when starters are pulled

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Extreme spread creates high variance
• No statistical data on visiting team
• Outcome depends heavily on coaching decisions

Technical Analysis:

Insufficient data on Illinois State makes modeling impossible. FCS vs FBS spreads over 35 points have extremely high variance and depend more on coaching decisions than statistical advantages, making them unpredictable betting propositions.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

This is a classic trap game where Oklahoma is laying nearly 40 points against an FCS opponent, and while the Sooners should win easily, these massive spreads are nearly impossible to predict accurately. The outcome will largely depend on how long Oklahoma keeps their starters in the game and whether they continue pushing for scores in garbage time, which varies wildly from coach to coach and situation to situation. Illinois State could easily cover this spread by simply avoiding turnovers and making Oklahoma work for their touchdowns, as FCS teams regularly keep games closer than expected against Power 5 opponents early in the season. Without any advanced statistics on Illinois State, we're essentially betting blind on how competitive they'll be, and that's never a smart approach. The smart play here is to enjoy watching the game without any financial investment, as these lopsided mismatches are more about entertainment than predictable betting opportunities.