Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Home field advantage: Jacksonville State gets ~3 points for playing at home, which isn't fully reflected in the spread
• Similar adjusted efficiency metrics: Delaware has slight edge in adjusted EPA (0.192 vs 0.172) but difference is minimal
• Defensive comparison: Jacksonville State allows fewer adjusted EPA (0.240 vs 0.222) suggesting slightly weaker defense
• ELO ratings close: Jacksonville State 1517 vs Delaware 1491 - only 26 point difference favors home team

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Conference USA games can be unpredictable
• Both teams have similar statistical profiles making this a close matchup

Technical Analysis:

Jacksonville State's adjusted EPA metrics (0.172 total, 0.240 allowed) are very close to Delaware's (0.192 total, 0.222 allowed), suggesting minimal true talent gap. Home field advantage of ~26 ELO points plus venue factor makes the 2.75-point spread slightly inflated for the road favorite.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

Jacksonville State is getting nearly 3 points at home against Delaware, and that feels like solid value in what should be a very close game. Both teams have performed at similar levels this season when you account for their competition, with Delaware holding just a slight edge in overall efficiency. The Gamecocks have the advantage of playing at home where they've been competitive, and their defense has actually been a bit more consistent than Delaware's this year. Delaware did show some regression from last season when they were much more dominant defensively, giving up significantly more points per opportunity this year. Getting points with the home team in a conference matchup between two evenly matched squads presents good value.