Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• ELO Rating Advantage: Tennessee has a massive 277-point ELO advantage (1776 vs 1499), suggesting they should be favored by approximately 19-20 points in a neutral site game
• Defensive Efficiency Gap: Tennessee's defense allowed just 0.021 PPA compared to Syracuse's 0.228 PPA allowed - a massive defensive advantage for the Volunteers
• Syracuse Roster Turnover: Syracuse returns only 14.3% of last year's production with catastrophic rushing losses (-22.2% returning), while Tennessee returns 22.1%
• Power Running Discrepancy: Tennessee's power success rate of 82.4% against Syracuse's 74.6% power success allowed creates favorable short-yardage situations

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Neutral site eliminates Tennessee's home field advantage
• Week 1 unpredictability with roster changes

Technical Analysis:

Tennessee's 277-point ELO advantage translates to roughly a 19-20 point spread on a neutral field. The defensive efficiency gap is massive (0.021 vs 0.228 PPA allowed), and Syracuse's catastrophic roster turnover (14.3% returning production) in Week 1 creates additional uncertainty that favors the more stable Tennessee program.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

Tennessee comes into this neutral site opener as a 13.5-point favorite, and that line looks too low given the massive talent gap between these programs. The Volunteers had one of the nation's best defenses last season, giving up almost nothing to opposing offenses, while Syracuse struggled badly on that side of the ball throughout 2024. Syracuse lost a staggering amount of production from last year's team, particularly in their running game where they're essentially starting from scratch with new players. Tennessee's coaching staff has proven they can reload talent effectively, and their defensive system should dominate a Syracuse offense that will be breaking in multiple new pieces. The market seems to be giving Syracuse too much respect as a Power 5 program, but the statistical gap between these teams suggests Tennessee should win this game by 17-20 points.