Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Excessive road spread: Temple favored by 11.5 on road despite modest statistical edge suggesting 7-point true line
• Defensive struggles both sides: Both teams allowing 0.20+ EPA suggests higher-scoring game that keeps it closer
• Home field value: Charlotte gets 3+ points of home field advantage in conference game

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Temple's superior overall efficiency
• Charlotte's low returning production

Technical Analysis:

Temple's adjusted EPA advantage (0.161 vs 0.069) and Elo edge (~58 points net) suggest a 7-point true line. Market line of 11.5 creates 4.5-point edge favoring Charlotte +11.5 in what projects as a higher-scoring conference game.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

Temple is clearly the better team here, but the betting market is asking them to cover nearly two touchdowns on the road against a conference opponent. When you look at how each team has performed against similar competition this season, Temple has been more efficient but not dramatically so. Both teams have struggled defensively, giving up big plays and points consistently, which should keep this game competitive throughout. Charlotte has been respectable at home this season and getting nearly 12 points in a conference matchup feels like too many points. The numbers suggest this should be closer to a touchdown spread, making Charlotte plus the points excellent value.