Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Statistical Edge Favors Utah: Utah has better opponent-adjusted EPA and success rates across most categories
• Home Field Advantage: BYU gets approximately 3 points for playing at LaVell Edwards Stadium
• Roster Continuity Concerns: Utah returning only 14% of production creates uncertainty about true team strength

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Utah's low returning production creates unpredictability
• Rivalry game emotions could override statistical advantages
• Line appears fairly efficient with limited edge

Technical Analysis:

Utah's superior opponent-adjusted metrics (0.293 total EPA vs 0.237, 51.6% vs 47.2% success rate) suggest they're the stronger team, but BYU's home field advantage (~3 points) largely negates this edge. The line appears fairly efficient with minimal value on either side.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

This Holy War matchup between Utah and BYU has all the makings of a competitive rivalry game, but the betting line appears pretty accurate. Utah has been more efficient on both sides of the ball this season when you account for the strength of opponents each team has faced, suggesting they're the better team overall. However, BYU gets to play at home in Provo where they typically perform well, and that home field advantage is worth about 3 points in a game like this. The challenge with Utah is they're playing with almost entirely new players compared to last season, which makes it hard to trust their early season performance completely. While the statistical edge favors Utah, it's not large enough to overcome the home field advantage and justify taking either side. This feels like a game where the oddsmakers got it right, making it better to sit back and enjoy what should be an entertaining rivalry game.