Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Roster Continuity Disparity: Coastal Carolina returns 97% of offensive production vs Virginia's 28% - massive experience advantage for Week 1
• Offensive Efficiency Gap: Coastal Carolina's 2024 offensive PPA of 0.193 significantly outperformed Virginia's 0.121, indicating better ability to move the ball
• Explosive Play Advantage: Coastal Carolina averaged 1.36 explosiveness vs Virginia's 1.19, suggesting more big-play capability
• Points Per Opportunity: Coastal Carolina scored 4.32 points per red zone trip vs Virginia's 3.47, showing better finishing ability

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Virginia has slight home field advantage
• ACC vs Sun Belt perception bias in line setting

Technical Analysis:

Virginia's massive roster turnover (28% returning production vs CC's 97%) combined with Coastal Carolina's superior 2024 offensive metrics (0.193 PPA vs 0.121, 4.32 PPO vs 3.47) suggests the 12.5-point spread overvalues conference perception. ELO difference only justifies ~7.5 point spread including home field.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

This line screams overreaction to conference prestige rather than actual team quality and current roster situations. Coastal Carolina is bringing back virtually their entire offense from 2024 while Virginia lost 72% of their offensive production, meaning the Cavaliers will be starting fresh with inexperienced players in their season opener. The Chanticleers were actually the more efficient offensive team last season, averaging more points per drive and creating more explosive plays than Virginia did. While Virginia gets a home field boost, asking them to cover nearly two touchdowns with a completely rebuilt offense against an experienced, returning Coastal Carolina squad seems like a tall order. The market appears to be pricing in conference bias rather than recognizing that Coastal Carolina has both the experience edge and the statistical foundation to keep this game much closer than 12+ points.