Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Adjusted EPA differential smaller than spread suggests: Ohio State's adjusted EPA advantage (0.124) is significant but not historically dominant for such a large spread
• Wisconsin's defensive improvement: Badgers allowing 0.176 adjusted EPA vs 0.173 raw EPA last season, showing slight improvement against better competition
• Home field advantage at Camp Randall: Wisconsin historically tough at home, worth 3-4 points in Big Ten play
• Market overreaction to talent gap: 25-point spread appears inflated based on actual on-field performance metrics

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Ohio State's superior talent and recruiting could create explosive plays
• Wisconsin's low returning production (40.2%) could lead to execution issues in big spots

Technical Analysis:

Ohio State's 0.124 adjusted EPA advantage over Wisconsin's opponent-adjusted metrics suggests a 18-22 point favorite range, not 25. Wisconsin's defensive metrics show improvement from last season, and the Elo differential (615 points) historically correlates to roughly 21-point spreads in neutral settings.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

Ohio State is clearly the better team, but this 25-point spread looks way too high based on what both teams have actually done on the field this season. When you account for the strength of competition each team has faced, Wisconsin has been more competitive than this number suggests, and they're playing much better defense than they did last year. The Buckeyes are averaging about 0.12 more points per play than Wisconsin when adjusted for opponent quality - that's a significant edge but not typically worth 25 points in a conference game. Wisconsin has been tough to blow out at Camp Randall Stadium, and while they may not win this game, they should be able to keep it closer than four touchdowns. Taking the Badgers with all those points gives you a nice cushion even if Ohio State controls the game.