Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Superior adjusted EPA metrics: San José State shows better overall efficiency when accounting for strength of schedule
• Passing game advantage: Spartans have significantly better adjusted passing EPA (0.287 vs 0.226)
• Defensive efficiency: San José State allows fewer points per scoring opportunity (4.08 vs 5.14)
• ELO rating advantage: 47-point ELO advantage suggests San José State is the stronger overall team

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Road game for San José State
• Utah State home field advantage historically strong

Technical Analysis:

San José State's adjusted EPA metrics show clear advantages in passing offense (0.287 vs 0.226) and defensive efficiency (4.08 vs 5.14 points per opportunity allowed). Combined with a 47-point ELO advantage, the 3.5-point road spread appears to overvalue home field advantage against a statistically superior team.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

San José State comes into this game getting 3.5 points on the road, and that looks like excellent value based on the underlying numbers. The Spartans have been significantly more efficient moving the ball through the air this season when you account for the quality of opponents each team has faced, and their defense has done a better job preventing opponents from converting scoring opportunities into touchdowns. Utah State has struggled defensively at home this year, giving up over 5 points every time opponents get into scoring position, which should benefit San José State's balanced offensive attack. The Aggies are getting too much credit for home field advantage here, as the advanced metrics suggest San José State is actually the better team overall. Getting points with the superior team in a conference matchup is exactly the type of value we want to bet on.