Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Defensive efficiency advantage: James Madison allows 0.11 adjusted EPA vs Old Dominion's 0.111, but JMU has significantly better success rate defense (33.3% vs 41.7%)
• Home field advantage with superior Elo: JMU has 89-point Elo advantage (1643 vs 1554) plus home field worth ~40 points
• Line movement suggests value: Line moved from -2.5 to -1.5/-1.0, suggesting sharp money on Old Dominion despite statistical edge favoring JMU

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Old Dominion has better raw offensive metrics this season
• Conference game volatility in Sun Belt

Technical Analysis:

JMU holds advantages in adjusted defensive success rate allowed (33.3% vs 41.7%) and overall team strength via Elo ratings (89-point gap). Despite ODU's superior raw offensive EPA (0.329 vs 0.155), the adjusted metrics suggest strength of schedule differences, with JMU's defensive efficiency being the key differentiator in a conference matchup.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

James Madison is getting just 1.5 points of home field advantage in what should be a much more lopsided game based on team strength. The Dukes have a significant overall team rating advantage and have been much more consistent defensively this season, allowing opponents to succeed on just 33% of their plays compared to Old Dominion giving up success on 42% of plays. While Old Dominion has put up some impressive offensive numbers, they've done it against weaker competition, and their defense has been far too generous. James Madison has proven they can win the field position battle and control games at home, and they're getting almost no respect from the betting market here. This line should be closer to a touchdown, making the Dukes at less than a field goal an excellent value play.