Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• ELO Rating Gap: 441-point ELO difference suggests Michigan should win by ~28 points, not 35
• New Mexico Offensive Efficiency: Lobos had strong 2024 offense with 0.303 PPA vs Michigan's 0.129, showing capability to score
• Michigan Roster Turnover: Michigan returning only 39.5% of production with major losses in receiving (45.4%) creates early season uncertainty
• Line Movement Opportunity: Line has moved from -36.5 to -34.5 at some books, indicating sharp money on New Mexico

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Week 1 unpredictability with new rosters and systems
• Michigan at home in Big House could create momentum swings

Technical Analysis:

ELO differential suggests ~28-point spread while market is at 35. New Mexico's superior 2024 offensive efficiency (0.303 vs 0.129 PPA) combined with Michigan's significant roster turnover (39.5% returning production) creates value on the road dog getting inflated points.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

New Mexico is getting way too many points in this opener, even though Michigan is clearly the better team. The Lobos actually had a pretty explosive offense last season, averaging much better numbers than Michigan in several key areas, and while they lost some players, so did the Wolverines. Michigan is dealing with significant roster changes after losing a lot of their receiving production and overall team chemistry from last year. The betting line opened at 36.5 points but has already dropped to 34.5 at multiple sportsbooks, which tells us the smart money is backing New Mexico to keep this game closer than expected. Even if Michigan wins this game going away, New Mexico should be able to move the ball well enough to make this a 3-4 touchdown game rather than a total blowout. Taking the Lobos with all these points gives us a nice cushion in what should be a competitive opener.