Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Offensive Efficiency Edge: SMU's opponent-adjusted EPA (0.220) significantly outpaces Clemson's (0.178), indicating superior offensive performance against similar competition
• Passing Game Advantage: SMU's adjusted passing EPA (0.346) is substantially higher than Clemson's (0.229), creating a major mismatch in the most impactful phase
• Defensive Parity: Both teams show similar defensive metrics with SMU slightly better in adjusted EPA allowed (0.124 vs 0.134)
• Line Movement: Line has moved from -11.5 to -9.5, indicating sharp money on SMU as the market recognizes value

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Road environment at Death Valley
• SMU's lower roster continuity could impact execution

Technical Analysis:

SMU's superior opponent-adjusted offensive metrics (0.220 EPA vs 0.178) combined with defensive parity creates significant value at +9.5. The 25-point Elo difference doesn't justify a 9.5-point spread when advanced metrics favor the road team offensively.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

SMU is getting 9.5 points in this matchup, and the numbers suggest they're being significantly undervalued by the betting market. The Mustangs have been much more efficient moving the ball this season when you account for the strength of opponents each team has faced, particularly through the air where they've been explosive. While Clemson has the home field advantage, both teams have played similar quality defense this year, making this more of an even matchup than the large spread suggests. The betting line has already dropped from 11.5 to 9.5 points, showing that sharp bettors are recognizing SMU's value in this spot. Getting nearly double digits with a team that has shown superior offensive efficiency feels like tremendous value.