Game-by-game results and against-the-spread performance
Line Analysis: Market Line: -8 | Our Predicted Line: -5.5 | Edge: 2.5 points
Tennessee shows superior opponent-adjusted metrics across multiple categories (total EPA 0.257 vs 0.276, passing EPA advantage). Significant line movement from -11.5/-12.5 opening to current -8 indicates sharp money on Tennessee. Raw stats support adjusted metrics with Tennessee showing better efficiency in key areas.
Tennessee is getting 8 points in this SEC showdown, and that feels like tremendous value based on how both teams have performed when you account for the quality of opponents they've faced. The Volunteers have actually been more efficient moving the ball and stopping opponents than Alabama when adjusted for strength of schedule, suggesting they're the stronger team overall despite Alabama's higher ranking. The betting line has already moved significantly in Tennessee's favor from the opening number, dropping from Alabama -11.5 to around -8, which typically indicates that sharp professional bettors are backing the Volunteers. Tennessee's offense has been explosive this season, averaging over 5 points per scoring opportunity, while their defense has improved dramatically from last year's struggles. Getting over a touchdown with the better statistical team in what should be a competitive SEC battle makes Tennessee plus the points an excellent value play.
2024 Season Performance Analysis
Efficiency scores combine ELO ratings with EPA performance metrics. Position shows offensive vs defensive strengths relative to all FBS teams.
ELO ratings provide a comprehensive measure of team strength based on historical performance and strength of schedule.