Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Offensive efficiency gap smaller than market suggests: Tulane's adjusted EPA advantage (0.163 vs 0.159) is minimal, not supporting a double-digit spread
• Army's superior rushing defense: Army allows 0.095 rushing EPA vs Tulane's 0.132, neutralizing Tulane's ground game advantage
• Similar success rates: Both teams hovering around 43% success rate - very comparable offensive capabilities
• Army's improved defensive havoc: 15.3% havoc rate vs Tulane's 18.7% shows Army can create disruption

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Home field advantage for Tulane could be significant
• Army's passing game limitations (14% pass rate) could be exploited

Technical Analysis:

The adjusted EPA metrics show these teams are nearly identical offensively (Tulane 0.163 vs Army 0.159), while Army holds a defensive advantage in rushing EPA allowed (0.095 vs 0.132). The 10-point spread appears inflated given the statistical similarity and Army's defensive strengths that should neutralize Tulane's rushing attack.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

Army is getting 10 points in this game, and that feels like way too many points for two teams that are playing at very similar levels this season. When you look at how efficiently both teams move the ball against the quality of competition they've faced, there's barely any difference between them - both are performing at nearly identical levels. Army actually has a better defense against the run, which is important since that's where Tulane likes to do most of their damage on offense. The Black Knights have been solid on defense all year, creating plenty of disruption and keeping games close even when they're underdogs. Getting double-digit points with a team that's statistically very close to their opponent, especially when that team has consistently played tough defense, looks like great value.