Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Offensive Efficiency Edge: Ole Miss shows superior adjusted EPA (0.253 vs 0.206) and higher explosiveness on offense, indicating better big-play ability
• Defensive Performance Gap: Georgia's defense has declined significantly from elite 2024 levels, now allowing similar EPA to Ole Miss while Ole Miss defense has improved
• Line Movement Indicator: Line has moved from -10.5 to -7.5/-8.5, showing sharp money backing Ole Miss and market correction
• Big Game Performance: Ole Miss offense designed for high-level competition with elite passing attack (0.408 adjusted passing EPA vs 0.268 for Georgia)

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Georgia home field advantage at Sanford Stadium
• Potential for Georgia defensive improvement in big games

Technical Analysis:

Ole Miss shows superior adjusted offensive metrics (0.253 total EPA vs 0.206 for Georgia) with significant advantages in passing efficiency and explosiveness. Georgia's defense has regressed substantially from 2024 elite levels, now allowing comparable EPA to Ole Miss while Ole Miss defense has improved. The 3+ point line movement from opening suggests market overcorrection.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

Ole Miss is getting 7.5 points in this SEC showdown, and that feels like tremendous value based on what both teams have shown this season. The Rebels have been significantly more explosive on offense than Georgia when you account for the strength of competition each team has faced, showing they can move the ball effectively against quality defenses. Georgia's defense has taken a major step back from their dominant 2024 form, now allowing opponents to have much more success than we're used to seeing from the Bulldogs. The betting line opened at 10.5 points and has dropped to 7.5, indicating that smart money is backing Ole Miss and the market is recognizing this spread was too high. Ole Miss has the offensive firepower to keep pace in what should be a competitive SEC battle, making them plus the points an excellent value play.