Game-by-game results and against-the-spread performance
Line Analysis: Market Line: -27.5 | Our Predicted Line: -18.2 | Edge: 9.3 points
ELO differential (679 points) suggests 17-19 point spread vs market 27.5. Indiana's adjusted defensive metrics show regression from elite 2024 performance. Michigan State's opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency stronger than raw stats indicate, creating significant line value.
This 27.5-point spread seems way too high for a game between two Big Ten teams that were fairly similar last season. Indiana has looked dominant this year, but when you account for the strength of teams they've played, the gap isn't nearly as large as the raw numbers suggest. Michigan State has actually been more efficient on offense than their basic stats show, and they're catching Indiana at a time when the Hoosiers' defense has taken a clear step backward from last year. The computer power ratings suggest this should be closer to an 18-point game, not a 28-point blowout. Getting nearly 10 extra points with a conference opponent in what should be a much more competitive game than the market expects makes Michigan State a strong value play.
2024 Season Performance Analysis
Efficiency scores combine ELO ratings with EPA performance metrics. Position shows offensive vs defensive strengths relative to all FBS teams.
ELO ratings provide a comprehensive measure of team strength based on historical performance and strength of schedule.