Know The Points

Week 8 • 2025 Season

Michigan State

Big Ten
@

Indiana

Big Ten
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)

Season Records

Game-by-game results and against-the-spread performance

Michigan State
3-3 (0-4 ATS)
W1
vs Western Michigan
6-23
W
L
W2
vs Boston College
40-42
W
L
W3
vs Youngstown State
24-41
W
L
W4
@ USC
31-45
L
N/A
W6
@ Nebraska
27-38
L
N/A
W7
vs UCLA
38-13
L
L
Indiana
6-0 (3-2 ATS)
W1
vs Old Dominion
14-27
W
L
W2
vs Kennesaw State
9-56
W
W
W3
vs Indiana State
0-73
W
W
W4
vs Illinois
10-63
W
W
W5
@ Iowa
20-15
W
L
W7
@ Oregon
30-20
W
N/A

Current Betting Lines

DraftKings

Indiana -27.5 O/U 52.5 Indiana -5000 | Michigan State +1800

Bovada

Indiana -27.0 O/U 52.5 Indiana -5000 | Michigan State +1300

ESPN Bet

Indiana -26.5 O/U 52.5 Indiana - | Michigan State -

Expert Betting Analysis

Our Recommendation: STRONG BET (Confidence: 7/10)

Recommended Bet: Michigan State +27.5

Line Analysis: Market Line: -27.5 | Our Predicted Line: -18.2 | Edge: 9.3 points

Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

  • Massive ELO Gap vs Line Disconnect: 679 ELO point gap suggests 17-19 point spread, but market at 27.5 points
  • Indiana's Defensive Regression: Defense allowing positive EPA this year vs -0.047 last season, showing significant decline
  • Michigan State Improved Offensive Efficiency: Spartans' adjusted EPA improved from raw stats, showing stronger performance vs competition
  • Historical Context: Both teams performed similarly last season, Indiana's dominance appears schedule-driven

Risk Factors to Consider:

  • Indiana at home with momentum
  • Michigan State's inconsistent road performance

Technical Analysis:

ELO differential (679 points) suggests 17-19 point spread vs market 27.5. Indiana's adjusted defensive metrics show regression from elite 2024 performance. Michigan State's opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency stronger than raw stats indicate, creating significant line value.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

This 27.5-point spread seems way too high for a game between two Big Ten teams that were fairly similar last season. Indiana has looked dominant this year, but when you account for the strength of teams they've played, the gap isn't nearly as large as the raw numbers suggest. Michigan State has actually been more efficient on offense than their basic stats show, and they're catching Indiana at a time when the Hoosiers' defense has taken a clear step backward from last year. The computer power ratings suggest this should be closer to an 18-point game, not a 28-point blowout. Getting nearly 10 extra points with a conference opponent in what should be a much more competitive game than the market expects makes Michigan State a strong value play.

Detailed Team Comparison

2024 Season Performance Analysis

Offensive Performance Metrics

Metric
Michigan State
Indiana
Points Per Play (PPA)
0.150
0.369
Success Rate
41.8%
55.4%
Explosiveness
1.177
1.147
Line Yards Per Carry
2.7
3.5
Second Level Yards
1.1
1.4
Open Field Yards
0.8
1.7
Standard Down Success Rate
47.9%
59.1%
Passing Down Success Rate
28.9%
40.5%
Points Per Opportunity
5.111
4.875
Average Starting Field Position
71.2
67.8
Power Success Rate
71.4%
72.5%
Stuff Rate (Lower is Better)
24.6%
13.5%

Defensive Performance Metrics

Metric
Michigan State
Indiana
Opponent PPA Allowed
0.219
-0.007
Opponent Success Rate Allowed
44.5%
30.3%
Explosiveness Allowed
1.218
1.377
Line Yards Allowed
2.6
2.4
Second Level Yards Allowed
1.1
0.8
Open Field Yards Allowed
1.6
1.5
Standard Down Success Rate Allowed
51.0%
35.3%
Passing Down Success Rate Allowed
30.6%
22.1%
Points Per Opportunity Allowed
4.000
1.867
Average Field Position Given
66.5
73.8
Power Success Rate Allowed
88.0%
53.8%
Stuff Rate (Higher is Better)
20.9%
30.6%

Havoc Metrics

Metric
Michigan State
Indiana
Total Havoc Created (Defense)
15.4%
25.4%
Front Seven Havoc Created
10.2%
18.3%
DB Havoc Created
5.2%
7.1%
Total Havoc Allowed (Offense)
17.1%
10.8%

Team Efficiency Analysis

Team Efficiency Comparison

Efficiency scores combine ELO ratings with EPA performance metrics. Position shows offensive vs defensive strengths relative to all FBS teams.

Michigan State

0.0
Offense: 0.0
Defense: 0.0
VS
Even Matchup

Indiana

0.0
Offense: 0.0
Defense: 0.0

ELO Rating Analysis

ELO ratings provide a comprehensive measure of team strength based on historical performance and strength of schedule.

Michigan State ELO

1343

Indiana ELO

2022

Game Information

Season Type: Regular
Conference Game: Yes
Game Time: