Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• USC superior adjusted offensive efficiency: USC has significantly higher adjusted EPA (0.37 vs 0.26) and success rate (0.56 vs 0.50) when accounting for strength of schedule
• Defensive metrics favor USC: USC allows nearly identical adjusted EPA (0.12 vs 0.13) but creates more defensive havoc (18.3% vs 14.5%)
• Line movement indicates value: Line has moved from Notre Dame -10.5 to -9.5, suggesting sharp money on USC
• Big Ten conference strength: USC's adjusted metrics account for playing in stronger Big Ten competition vs Notre Dame's independent schedule

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Home field advantage at Notre Dame Stadium
• USC's lower rushing success rate could be exploited

Technical Analysis:

USC's adjusted EPA (0.37 vs 0.26) and success rate (0.56 vs 0.50) significantly exceed Notre Dame's when accounting for strength of schedule. The 292-point Elo difference suggests about a 6-point spread with home field, making the 9.5-point market line an overreaction to Notre Dame's reputation and home venue.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

USC is getting 9.5 points in this game, and that feels like excellent value based on how both teams have actually performed this season. When you account for the strength of competition each team has faced, USC has been significantly more efficient moving the ball with a much higher success rate on offense than Notre Dame. The Trojans are also slightly better defensively when you consider they've been playing tougher Big Ten opponents while Notre Dame has had a softer independent schedule. Notre Dame's home field advantage is real, but it's likely already baked into this large spread that has been coming down from the opening number. USC getting nearly 10 points against a team that isn't statistically superior makes this a strong value play.