Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Offensive efficiency advantage: Mississippi State has higher opponent-adjusted total EPA (0.199 vs 0.175) and similar success rates, indicating stronger offense than market recognizes
• Defensive parity: Both teams have nearly identical defensive EPA allowed (~0.15), negating Florida's expected defensive advantage
• Elo rating gap: Florida's 145-point Elo advantage suggests 6-7 point home favorite, less than market spread
• Road team getting points: Mississippi State has shown ability to move the ball effectively and is getting nearly double digits

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Florida playing at home in SEC conference game
• Mississippi State's lower talent composite and Elo rating
• Potential for Florida to control game with home field advantage

Technical Analysis:

Mississippi State shows a slight edge in opponent-adjusted total EPA (0.199 vs 0.175) while defensive metrics are nearly identical for both teams. The 145-point Elo gap suggests a 6-7 point line with home field, making 9.5 points an overvaluation of Florida's advantage.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

Mississippi State is getting 9.5 points in this game, and that feels like too many points based on what both teams have shown this season. When you account for the strength of competition each team has faced, Mississippi State has actually been slightly more efficient moving the ball than Florida, putting up better numbers against similar quality opponents. Both defenses have been nearly identical in terms of how much they've allowed per play, so this really comes down to which offense can execute better. Florida is certainly the better program historically and has the home field advantage, but Mississippi State has shown they can move the ball consistently and score points when they get opportunities. Getting nearly 10 points with a team that has been statistically competitive feels like great value in what should be a closer game than the market expects.