Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Adjusted EPA Differential: Georgia State shows better adjusted total EPA (0.131 vs 0.161) when accounting for strength of schedule, suggesting the gap isn't as wide as the line indicates
• Defensive Efficiency Edge: Georgia State allows significantly fewer adjusted EPA points (0.240 vs 0.289), showing they're the better defensive unit
• Elo Rating Gap: 200-point Elo difference (1316 vs 1116) supports Georgia Southern as favorite but suggests closer to 4-5 point spread
• Conference Game Dynamics: Sun Belt conference matchup where familiarity and rivalry can lead to closer games regardless of perceived talent gaps

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Georgia Southern's home field advantage in conference play
• Georgia State's lower success rate on standard downs could hurt in close game situations

Technical Analysis:

Georgia State shows superior adjusted metrics across multiple categories (total EPA allowed 0.240 vs 0.289, similar offensive efficiency) while the 200-point Elo gap suggests a 4-5 point spread rather than 6.5. The adjusted metrics indicate Georgia State has faced tougher competition and performed better when schedule strength is considered.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

Georgia State is getting 6.5 points in this Sun Belt showdown, and that feels like too many points based on how these teams have actually performed this season. When you look at how both teams have fared against similar competition, Georgia State has been more efficient on both sides of the ball, particularly on defense where they've been significantly better at preventing big plays. Georgia Southern is the home favorite and has the better overall record, but their numbers suggest they've benefited from a slightly easier schedule so far this year. Conference games in the Sun Belt tend to be much closer than the regular season records suggest, as these teams know each other well and play with extra motivation. Getting nearly a touchdown with the team that's been more fundamentally sound on both sides of the ball looks like solid value in what should be a competitive divisional matchup.