Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Adjusted EPA Differential: Texas Tech has only a 0.096 adjusted EPA advantage despite 206 ELO point advantage - much smaller than market expects
• Defensive Performance Gap: Arizona State allowing 0.155 adjusted EPA vs Texas Tech allowing 0.059 - ASU defense struggling more than TTU
• Success Rate Parity: Texas Tech only 0.051 better in adjusted success rate - minimal edge for a 9.5 point spread
• Historical Context: Both teams performing similarly to 2024 levels, suggesting no major program shifts

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Texas Tech has clear ELO rating advantage (1835 vs 1629)
• Arizona State defense allowing more explosive plays than Texas Tech

Technical Analysis:

Adjusted metrics show Texas Tech with only marginal advantages (0.096 EPA, 0.051 success rate) despite significant ELO gap. Market overvaluing ELO differential relative to actual on-field performance metrics, creating 6+ point value on Arizona State.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

Arizona State is getting 9.5 points at home, and that feels like way too many points based on how these teams have actually performed this season. When you account for the strength of competition each team has faced, Texas Tech has been better but not dramatically so - they're only slightly more efficient on both sides of the ball than Arizona State. The Sun Devils have been competitive in a tough Big 12 conference and are getting nearly double-digit points at home against a Texas Tech team that hasn't been dominant on the road. This spread suggests Texas Tech should win by two touchdowns, but the statistical gap between these teams points to a much closer game. Arizona State getting 9.5 points at home looks like tremendous value in what should be a competitive conference matchup.