Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Missouri State offensive efficiency advantage: Missouri State had significantly higher offensive PPA (0.301 vs 0.224) and better points per opportunity (4.63 vs 3.89) in 2024
• USC major roster turnover: USC returns only 36.8% of production with just 15.1% of passing production returning, indicating significant offensive rebuilding
• ELO gap overstated: 176-point ELO difference suggests 28-point spread, but market is pricing USC 7+ points higher than statistical models indicate

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Week 1 unpredictability with new rosters
• Talent gap between Power 4 and Group of 5 programs may be underestimated

Technical Analysis:

Missouri State's superior 2024 offensive efficiency metrics (0.301 PPA vs 0.224) combined with USC's massive roster turnover (36.8% production returning, 15.1% passing) suggests the market is overvaluing USC. ELO differential indicates ~28-point spread, creating 7.5-point value on Missouri State.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

This massive 35.5-point spread feels way too high for a USC team that lost most of its offensive production from last season and is breaking in new players across the board. Missouri State actually had a more efficient offense than USC last year, averaging over 4.6 points per red zone opportunity compared to USC's 3.9, and they're likely returning more experienced players to run their system. While USC certainly has more talent on paper, they're essentially starting over with a new roster and will need time to gel, especially early in the season when execution matters most. The Trojans have been inconsistent in recent years even with more experienced rosters, and laying over five touchdowns against any decent college football team is extremely difficult. Missouri State plus the points gives you a huge cushion in what should be a closer game than Vegas expects.