Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Adjusted EPA Differential: Memphis has only a 0.06 adjusted EPA advantage (0.226 vs 0.164), far smaller than the massive 21.5-point spread suggests
• Defensive Performance Gap: UAB's defense allows 0.260 adjusted EPA vs Memphis allowing 0.139, but this 0.12 difference doesn't justify such a large spread
• Success Rate Comparison: Memphis has modest edge in adjusted success rate (0.441 vs 0.391), indicating closer game than market expects
• Historical Context: UAB performed similarly last season (0.167 offensive EPA) while Memphis was slightly better (0.255), showing consistent program levels

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Memphis has significant talent advantage with much higher ELO rating
• UAB's poor roster continuity could impact execution

Technical Analysis:

The adjusted EPA metrics show Memphis with only marginal advantages (0.226 vs 0.164 total EPA, 0.441 vs 0.391 success rate) that don't support a 21.5-point spread. UAB's adjusted defensive EPA allowed (0.260) vs Memphis (0.139) creates the main gap, but historical context shows both teams performing at similar levels to last season, suggesting this line overvalues Memphis significantly.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

Memphis is getting way too much respect in this matchup, laying over three touchdowns against a UAB team that's been more competitive than people realize. When you adjust for the quality of competition each team has faced, Memphis has been only slightly better on offense this season, nowhere near enough to justify being favored by 21.5 points. UAB's defense has struggled some, but they've shown they can move the ball effectively against quality opponents and have been in competitive games all season. Memphis has had some impressive wins but also some concerning performances that suggest they might not be the dominant team this spread indicates. Getting over three touchdowns with a home underdog that has the coaching and experience to keep this game competitive feels like tremendous value.