Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Adjusted EPA Differential: Florida State has only a 0.128 adjusted total EPA advantage vs 0.137 for Stanford, much smaller gap than 17.5 point spread suggests
• Success Rate Comparison: FSU's 49.5% adjusted success rate vs Stanford's 37.9% shows advantage but not blowout-level dominance
• Historical Context vs Current Performance: FSU was poor in 2024 (0.040 offensive PPA) but much improved in 2025; Stanford struggling but metrics suggest competitiveness
• Line Movement: Line has moved from 16.5 to 18.5 at DraftKings, suggesting sharp money may have been on Stanford early

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Stanford's low 37.9% success rate indicates inconsistent offensive execution
• Florida State's significant improvement from last season suggests they may continue trending upward
• Large spreads can cover quickly in college football with explosive plays

Technical Analysis:

FSU's adjusted total EPA of 0.265 vs Stanford's 0.137 shows clear advantage but not the massive gap implied by 17.5 points. Stanford's defensive metrics (0.189 EPA allowed) are actually competitive with FSU's 0.168, suggesting this game could stay closer than the market expects.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

Florida State is getting a lot of respect from the betting market here, but the numbers suggest this spread is too high. While the Seminoles have been much more efficient on offense this season compared to their struggles last year, Stanford's underlying metrics show they're more competitive than this 17.5-point spread indicates. The Cardinal's adjusted efficiency numbers are actually quite respectable when you account for the strength of teams they've faced, and they've shown they can move the ball effectively at times. Florida State is clearly the better team, but they're not nearly 18 points better than Stanford on a neutral field, let alone giving up home field advantage. This feels like a spot where the market is overreacting to Florida State's early season improvement and Stanford's perceived struggles, creating value on the underdog.