Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Comparable adjusted offensive efficiency: Both teams show similar adjusted EPA on offense (App State 0.105, Coastal 0.085), suggesting less separation than the 10.5-point spread indicates
• Defensive vulnerability edge to Coastal: App State allows significantly more adjusted EPA (0.169 vs 0.161), particularly vulnerable against the pass (0.276 vs 0.228)
• Coastal Carolina's balanced offensive attack: Chanticleers show solid rushing metrics and have proven they can move the ball consistently when schedule strength is factored in

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Home field advantage for App State in conference play
• App State's higher Elo rating (1360 vs 1206) suggests market may be pricing in intangible factors

Technical Analysis:

Adjusted metrics reveal much closer gap than market suggests - App State's 0.105 adjusted EPA vs Coastal's 0.085 doesn't justify 10.5-point spread. App State's defensive vulnerabilities (0.169 EPA allowed vs 0.161) particularly concerning against Coastal's balanced attack. Market appears to be overvaluing Elo differential and home field.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

Coastal Carolina is getting 10.5 points on the road, which feels like too many points based on what the numbers show about these two teams. When you account for the strength of opponents each team has faced, App State and Coastal Carolina have performed at surprisingly similar levels on offense this season. App State's defense has actually been weaker than Coastal's, particularly against the pass, giving up more big plays to opponents of comparable quality. While App State gets the home field boost and has looked solid this year, they haven't been dominant enough to justify laying double digits against a Coastal team that can move the ball effectively. The Chanticleers have shown they belong in games like this, and getting over a touchdown and a half provides excellent value in what should be a competitive Sun Belt matchup.