Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Opponent-Adjusted EPA Advantage: Oklahoma shows superior adjusted EPA on both sides (0.163 offense vs 0.155 for SC, 0.063 defense vs 0.102 for SC)
• Success Rate Differential: Oklahoma has significant edges in adjusted success rates - 46% vs 40% on offense, allowing only 29% vs SC's 40%
• Defensive Efficiency Gap: Oklahoma's defense is substantially better in adjusted metrics, creating more havoc and limiting explosive plays
• Road Performance Context: Oklahoma's road experience in SEC play and higher ELO rating (1741 vs 1670) suggests better equipped for hostile environment

Risk Factors to Consider:

• South Carolina home field advantage in SEC matchup
• Oklahoma's inconsistent offensive production in road games

Technical Analysis:

Oklahoma holds clear advantages in opponent-adjusted EPA on both sides of the ball (0.163 vs 0.155 offense, 0.063 vs 0.102 defense) and success rates (46% vs 40% offense, 29% vs 40% defense allowed). The 71-point ELO gap combined with superior defensive efficiency metrics suggests Oklahoma should be favored by more than the current 5.5-point spread.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

Oklahoma comes into Columbia getting 5.5 points, but the advanced numbers suggest they should be laying closer to a touchdown based on their superior efficiency on both sides of the ball. When you account for strength of schedule, the Sooners have been significantly better at moving the ball and much more impressive defensively, allowing far fewer successful plays than South Carolina. The Gamecocks' home numbers look decent on the surface, but they've struggled against quality competition and their defense has given up too many big plays when facing good offenses. Oklahoma has the higher talent level and better coaching, plus they've shown they can execute their game plan effectively in tough road environments this season. Getting less than a touchdown feels like solid value when the statistical gap between these teams suggests Oklahoma should be the clear favorite.