Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• FCS vs FBS mismatch: Massive talent gap makes outcome highly unpredictable
• Extreme spread size: 43+ point spreads create high variance and unpredictable outcomes
• Missing opponent data: Cannot properly evaluate Portland State's capabilities

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Massive spread creates huge variance
• FCS opponent analysis impossible
• Blowout games often see backups and unpredictable scoring

Technical Analysis:

Insufficient data on FCS opponent Portland State makes proper analysis impossible. Extreme 43+ point spread creates too much variance for confident prediction despite BYU's strong returning production metrics.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

This game features BYU laying over 43 points against Portland State, which is an absolutely massive spread that's extremely difficult to predict with any confidence. When you see spreads this large, especially involving FCS opponents, the outcomes become incredibly volatile - sometimes the favorite covers easily, other times they let off the gas or put in backups early. BYU returns most of their production from last season and should dominate, but predicting whether they'll win by 30 or 50 is nearly impossible. Portland State being an FCS team makes it even harder to gauge their true ability level compared to Big 12 competition. In situations like this with such extreme spreads and limited data on the underdog, the smart play is to simply stay away and find better spots with more predictable outcomes.