Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Overvalued line movement: Line moved from -8.5 to -10.5, creating inflated spread for WKU despite minimal statistical justification
• Adjusted metrics favor closer game: WKU's adjusted EPA advantage is modest (0.159 vs 0.092) while allowing similar EPA on defense (0.181 vs 0.201)
• FIU defensive improvement: Panthers showing better defensive efficiency this season compared to historical struggles
• Conference familiarity: C-USA matchup with teams knowing each other well tends to produce closer games

Risk Factors to Consider:

• WKU has clear home field advantage with higher Elo rating
• Florida International's offensive efficiency remains below average

Technical Analysis:

WKU's adjusted EPA advantage (0.159 vs 0.092) doesn't justify a 10.5-point spread, especially with similar defensive vulnerabilities. Line movement from -8.5 to -10.5 appears to be market overcorrection rather than sharp money, creating value on the inflated number for FIU.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

Florida International is getting 10.5 points on the road against Western Kentucky, and that feels like too many points in what should be a competitive Conference USA matchup. The line opened at 8.5 points and moved to 10.5, but when you look at how these teams have actually performed against similar competition, Western Kentucky isn't that much better than the Panthers. FIU has been more competitive this season than their reputation suggests, and they've shown improvement on defense compared to last year's struggles. Western Kentucky has the home field advantage and slightly better numbers, but they're not dominant enough to justify laying double digits against a conference opponent. In games like this between familiar conference foes, the underdog often keeps it closer than expected, making FIU plus the points excellent value.