Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Washington's Superior Offensive Efficiency: Washington's 0.397 PPA significantly outperforms Michigan's 0.277 PPA, showing much more explosive offensive capability
• Comparable Defensive Performance: While Michigan has slight defensive edge, the gap is much smaller than the offensive disparity favoring Washington
• Market Overvaluation of Home Field: Line appears inflated by Michigan's home field and brand recognition despite Washington's superior current form

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Michigan's strong home environment
• Washington adjusting to Big Ten road venues

Technical Analysis:

Washington's opponent-adjusted metrics show superior offensive efficiency (0.263 total EPA vs 0.242) while Michigan's defensive advantage (0.109 vs 0.151 EPA allowed) doesn't offset the offensive gap. Raw performance heavily favors Washington's explosive offense (0.397 vs 0.277 PPA). Market appears to overvalue home field and Michigan's brand.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

Washington is getting 6 points in this game, and that looks like tremendous value based on how both teams have performed this season. The Huskies have been much more efficient moving the ball than Michigan, averaging significantly more points per drive and showing much better success rates on offense. Michigan's offense has struggled to generate explosive plays and consistent drives, while Washington has been one of the more dynamic offensive units in college football this year. Michigan's defense is solid, but not elite enough to completely shut down Washington's improved offensive attack. Getting 6 points with the team that's been playing better football feels like great value in what should be a competitive Big Ten matchup.