Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Adjusted EPA Advantage: Baylor holds slight edge in total adjusted EPA (0.260 vs 0.228) and passing EPA (0.342 vs 0.320), indicating better efficiency against comparable competition
• Success Rate Edge: Baylor shows superior adjusted success rate (47.7% vs 44.0%) and significantly better passing down success (33.5% vs 29.7%)
• Defensive Comparison: TCU allows slightly fewer adjusted EPA (0.167 vs 0.200) but Baylor's offensive advantage appears to outweigh this defensive edge
• ELO Gap Concern: TCU's 125-point ELO advantage (1718 vs 1593) suggests market may be overvaluing this factor relative to current performance metrics

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Home field advantage for TCU could be decisive in close game
• Baylor's adjusted metrics only marginally better, creating tight margin for error

Technical Analysis:

Baylor's adjusted EPA metrics (0.260 total, 0.342 passing) exceed TCU's (0.228 total, 0.320 passing) when accounting for strength of schedule, along with superior success rates (47.7% vs 44.0%). While TCU has home field and ELO advantage, the current performance metrics favor Baylor enough to justify taking the points.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

Baylor is getting 3 points on the road, and the numbers suggest they're being undervalued in this matchup. When you account for the strength of opponents each team has faced, Baylor has been more efficient moving the ball this season, particularly through the air where they've shown better success rates on crucial passing downs. TCU has the home field advantage and slightly better defensive numbers, but Baylor's offensive edge appears strong enough to keep this game very competitive. The Bears have also been more consistent in key situations, converting at a higher rate when they need to move the chains. Getting 3 points with the team that has been statistically superior in the most important offensive categories feels like solid value.