Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Adjusted EPA Edge: Sam Houston shows better opponent-adjusted total EPA (0.086 vs 0.029) and defensive EPA allowed metrics, indicating stronger performance against comparable competition
• Success Rate Advantage: Sam Houston has better adjusted success rates overall and allows fewer successful plays on defense when accounting for opponent strength
• Neutral Site Context: Game is at neutral site eliminating home field advantage for either team, making statistical edges more important
• Conference USA Familiarity: Both teams know each other well within the same conference, reducing variance and making statistical advantages more predictive

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Low-scoring game potential with total set at 47.5
• Both teams have shown inconsistency this season with modest overall records

Technical Analysis:

Sam Houston shows clear advantages in opponent-adjusted EPA metrics on both sides of the ball (0.086 total EPA vs 0.029 for UTEP, better defensive EPA allowed). The Bearkats also hold edges in adjusted success rates and rushing efficiency metrics when accounting for strength of schedule, suggesting they're the superior team despite the market favoring UTEP.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

This Conference USA matchup has UTEP favored by 2.5 points on a neutral field, but the numbers suggest Sam Houston is actually the stronger team. When you look at how both teams have performed against the quality of competition they've faced, Sam Houston has been significantly more efficient moving the ball and stopping opponents than UTEP has been. The Bearkats are averaging better results per play on both sides of the ball when you account for strength of schedule, which is crucial in evaluating mid-major teams that often face wildly different levels of competition. UTEP's offense has particularly struggled this season, ranking well below average in most efficiency metrics and failing to consistently move the ball against decent defenses. Since this game is being played at a neutral site, there's no home field advantage to overcome, making Sam Houston getting points in what should be a competitive game excellent value.