Game-by-game results and against-the-spread performance
Line Analysis: Market Line: -13.5 | Our Predicted Line: -8.2 | Edge: 5.3 points
Eastern Michigan shows superior opponent-adjusted offensive EPA (0.170 vs 0.136) while Miami (OH) allows significantly more adjusted EPA on defense (0.268 vs 0.158). The 227-point Elo differential suggests an 8-9 point line, making 13.5 an overreaction by the market.
Eastern Michigan is getting way too many points in this MAC conference matchup, and the numbers strongly support taking the road dog. When you look at how both teams have performed against similar competition this season, Eastern Michigan has actually been the more efficient offensive team, averaging better production per play than Miami (OH). The key issue is that Miami (OH)'s defense has been getting torched this year, giving up significantly more points and big plays than Eastern Michigan's defense, which suggests this game should be much closer than the 13.5-point spread indicates. The betting line started at 11.5 points and moved to 13.5, which looks like the public is overvaluing the home team based on recent results rather than underlying performance. Eastern Michigan should be able to move the ball effectively against Miami (OH)'s suspect defense and keep this game within two touchdowns.
2024 Season Performance Analysis
Efficiency scores combine ELO ratings with EPA performance metrics. Position shows offensive vs defensive strengths relative to all FBS teams.
ELO ratings provide a comprehensive measure of team strength based on historical performance and strength of schedule.