Know The Points

Week 8 • 2025 Season

Eastern Michigan

Mid-American
@

Miami (OH)

Mid-American
Yager Stadium

Season Records

Game-by-game results and against-the-spread performance

Eastern Michigan
2-5 (0-0 ATS)
W1
@ Texas State
27-52
L
N/A
W2
vs Long Island University
28-23
L
N/A
W3
@ Kentucky
23-48
L
N/A
W4
vs Louisiana
31-34
W
N/A
W5
@ Central Michigan
13-24
L
N/A
W6
@ Buffalo
30-31
L
N/A
W7
vs Northern Illinois
10-16
W
N/A
Miami (OH)
3-3 (3-0 ATS)
W1
@ Wisconsin
0-17
L
N/A
W2
@ Rutgers
17-45
L
N/A
W4
vs UNLV
41-38
L
N/A
W5
vs Lindenwood
0-38
W
W
W6
@ Northern Illinois
25-14
W
W
W7
@ Akron
20-7
W
W

Current Betting Lines

DraftKings

Miami (OH) -13.5 O/U 47.5 Miami (OH) -535 | Eastern Michigan +400

Bovada

Miami (OH) -13.5 O/U 48 Miami (OH) -550 | Eastern Michigan +390

ESPN Bet

Miami (OH) -13.5 O/U 48.5 Miami (OH) -600 | Eastern Michigan +400

Expert Betting Analysis

Our Recommendation: STRONG BET (Confidence: 7/10)

Recommended Bet: Eastern Michigan +13.5

Line Analysis: Market Line: -13.5 | Our Predicted Line: -8.2 | Edge: 5.3 points

Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

  • Opponent-adjusted EPA advantage: Eastern Michigan has higher adjusted total EPA (0.170 vs 0.136) and passing EPA (0.228 vs 0.227), showing better offensive efficiency against comparable competition
  • Defensive efficiency gap: Miami (OH) allows significantly more adjusted EPA (0.268 vs 0.158), indicating Eastern Michigan faces a much weaker defense
  • Market overreaction: Line moved from -11.5 to -13.5, suggesting public money on Miami (OH) despite Eastern Michigan's superior adjusted metrics
  • Elo rating differential: 227-point Elo gap (1440 vs 1213) suggests 8-9 point spread, not 13.5

Risk Factors to Consider:

  • Home field advantage for Miami (OH)
  • Eastern Michigan's poor defensive metrics could lead to shootout

Technical Analysis:

Eastern Michigan shows superior opponent-adjusted offensive EPA (0.170 vs 0.136) while Miami (OH) allows significantly more adjusted EPA on defense (0.268 vs 0.158). The 227-point Elo differential suggests an 8-9 point line, making 13.5 an overreaction by the market.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

Eastern Michigan is getting way too many points in this MAC conference matchup, and the numbers strongly support taking the road dog. When you look at how both teams have performed against similar competition this season, Eastern Michigan has actually been the more efficient offensive team, averaging better production per play than Miami (OH). The key issue is that Miami (OH)'s defense has been getting torched this year, giving up significantly more points and big plays than Eastern Michigan's defense, which suggests this game should be much closer than the 13.5-point spread indicates. The betting line started at 11.5 points and moved to 13.5, which looks like the public is overvaluing the home team based on recent results rather than underlying performance. Eastern Michigan should be able to move the ball effectively against Miami (OH)'s suspect defense and keep this game within two touchdowns.

Detailed Team Comparison

2024 Season Performance Analysis

Offensive Performance Metrics

Metric
Eastern Michigan
Miami (OH)
Points Per Play (PPA)
0.185
0.138
Success Rate
43.1%
41.8%
Explosiveness
1.167
1.208
Line Yards Per Carry
3.1
3.3
Second Level Yards
1.1
1.2
Open Field Yards
0.8
0.7
Standard Down Success Rate
49.4%
47.5%
Passing Down Success Rate
27.3%
28.2%
Points Per Opportunity
3.850
3.367
Average Starting Field Position
73.8
69.6
Power Success Rate
64.9%
58.1%
Stuff Rate (Lower is Better)
16.9%
18.6%

Defensive Performance Metrics

Metric
Eastern Michigan
Miami (OH)
Opponent PPA Allowed
0.321
0.101
Opponent Success Rate Allowed
45.0%
42.2%
Explosiveness Allowed
1.347
1.139
Line Yards Allowed
3.2
2.9
Second Level Yards Allowed
1.2
0.9
Open Field Yards Allowed
1.9
1.2
Standard Down Success Rate Allowed
49.1%
46.8%
Passing Down Success Rate Allowed
35.5%
32.6%
Points Per Opportunity Allowed
4.268
3.679
Average Field Position Given
72.4
74.4
Power Success Rate Allowed
68.2%
67.9%
Stuff Rate (Higher is Better)
18.6%
19.1%

Havoc Metrics

Metric
Eastern Michigan
Miami (OH)
Total Havoc Created (Defense)
10.1%
18.9%
Front Seven Havoc Created
6.1%
10.4%
DB Havoc Created
4.0%
8.6%
Total Havoc Allowed (Offense)
10.1%
13.3%

Team Efficiency Analysis

Team Efficiency Comparison

Efficiency scores combine ELO ratings with EPA performance metrics. Position shows offensive vs defensive strengths relative to all FBS teams.

Eastern Michigan

0.0
Offense: 0.0
Defense: 0.0
VS
Even Matchup

Miami (OH)

0.0
Offense: 0.0
Defense: 0.0

ELO Rating Analysis

ELO ratings provide a comprehensive measure of team strength based on historical performance and strength of schedule.

Eastern Michigan ELO

1213

Miami (OH) ELO

1440

Game Information

Season Type: Regular
Conference Game: Yes
Game Time: