Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Adjusted EPA Advantage: Liberty shows significant advantage in opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency (0.169 vs 0.108) and defensive efficiency (0.150 vs 0.191)
• ELO Rating Gap: 197-point ELO difference suggests Liberty is substantially stronger overall
• Home Field Advantage: Liberty playing at home provides additional 2-3 point edge

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Liberty performing below 2024 levels
• NMSU showing defensive improvement
• Conference game unpredictability

Technical Analysis:

Liberty's opponent-adjusted metrics show clear superiority in both offensive (0.169 vs 0.108 EPA) and defensive (0.150 vs 0.191 EPA allowed) efficiency. The 197-point ELO gap combined with home field advantage suggests the market line is 2-3 points short of the true spread.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

Liberty is getting a great matchup at home against New Mexico State, and the 9.5-point spread doesn't fully capture how much better they are. When you account for the strength of opponents each team has played, Liberty has been much more efficient moving the ball and stopping opponents than New Mexico State this season. The Aggies struggled mightily on offense last year and haven't shown significant improvement, while Liberty was one of the better teams in Conference USA and maintains most of their key contributors. New Mexico State's defense has been particularly vulnerable, allowing big plays at a much higher rate than Liberty's defense. With Liberty playing at home and holding clear statistical advantages across the board, laying less than 10 points feels like solid value.