Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Adjusted EPA Advantage: Duke shows better overall efficiency when accounting for opponent strength
• Defensive Metrics: Duke allows fewer explosive plays and has better success rate prevention
• Home Field & Elo Edge: Duke gets home advantage plus 57-point Elo rating superiority

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Georgia Tech's high roster continuity could provide stability
• Line movement suggests some sharp money on GT

Technical Analysis:

Duke's superior adjusted EPA metrics (0.243 vs 0.221 total, 0.189 vs 0.172 allowed) combined with home field advantage and 57-point Elo edge suggests they should be favored by 4+ points. The market line of -1.5 provides 2.7 points of value on the statistically superior team.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

Duke is getting just 1.5 points at home in this ACC matchup, and that feels like tremendous value based on what both teams have shown this season. When you account for the strength of opponents each team has faced, Duke has been significantly more efficient on both sides of the ball, particularly defensively where they've been much better at preventing big plays. Georgia Tech struggled in some of their tougher matchups this year, while Duke has shown they can compete effectively against quality competition throughout their schedule. The Blue Devils also get the benefit of playing at home in Wallace Wade Stadium, where they've traditionally been competitive under their current coaching staff. Getting less than a field goal with the better team playing at home makes Duke an excellent value play in this spot.