Know The Points

Week 8 • 2025 Season

Purdue

Big Ten
@

Northwestern

Big Ten
Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium

Season Records

Game-by-game results and against-the-spread performance

Purdue
2-4 (1-0 ATS)
W1
vs Ball State
0-31
W
W
W2
vs Southern Illinois
17-34
W
N/A
W3
vs USC
33-17
L
N/A
W4
@ Notre Dame
30-56
L
N/A
W6
vs Illinois
43-27
L
N/A
W7
@ Minnesota
20-27
L
N/A
Northwestern
4-2 (1-1 ATS)
W1
@ Tulane
3-23
L
N/A
W2
vs Western Illinois
7-42
W
N/A
W3
vs Oregon
34-14
L
N/A
W5
vs UCLA
14-17
W
L
W6
vs UL Monroe
7-42
W
W
W7
@ Penn State
22-21
W
N/A

Current Betting Lines

DraftKings

Northwestern -3 O/U 47.5 Northwestern -148 | Purdue +124

Bovada

Northwestern -3.0 O/U 47 Northwestern -165 | Purdue +140

ESPN Bet

Northwestern -2.5 O/U 46.5 Northwestern -145 | Purdue +125

Expert Betting Analysis

Our Recommendation: MODERATE BET (Confidence: 6/10)

Recommended Bet: Northwestern -3

Line Analysis: Market Line: -3 | Our Predicted Line: -4.5 | Edge: 1.5 points

Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

  • Elo Rating Advantage: Northwestern has a significant 196-point Elo advantage (1510 vs 1314), suggesting they are the substantially stronger team
  • Defensive Efficiency Edge: Northwestern allows 0.186 EPA per play vs Purdue's 0.187, while Purdue's defense is much worse at 0.187 EPA allowed vs Northwestern's 0.186
  • Home Field Advantage: Northwestern gets home field advantage in what should be a close Big Ten conference matchup
  • Third Down Defense: Northwestern allows much lower success rates on passing downs (0.316 vs 0.274 for Purdue), giving them situational edge

Risk Factors to Consider:

  • Both teams have similar overall offensive efficiency metrics
  • Low-scoring game environment could lead to variance
  • Purdue has slightly better rushing defense metrics

Technical Analysis:

Northwestern's 196-point Elo advantage and slightly better defensive efficiency metrics suggest they should be favored by more than 3 points. The adjusted EPA numbers show minimal offensive differences, but Northwestern's defensive edge and home field make them undervalued at this line.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

Northwestern is getting a favorable line here as just 3-point home favorites against a Purdue team that has struggled significantly this season. The Wildcats are clearly the better team based on overall strength metrics, with a major advantage in team ratings that suggests they should be favored by more than a field goal. Purdue's defense has been particularly problematic this year, allowing opponents to move the ball effectively in key situations, while Northwestern has been more solid on that side of the ball. The home field advantage in this Big Ten matchup should provide additional value for Northwestern, especially in what projects to be a lower-scoring affair. Getting Northwestern at only -3 when they appear to be the clearly superior team represents solid value in this conference game.

Detailed Team Comparison

2024 Season Performance Analysis

Offensive Performance Metrics

Metric
Purdue
Northwestern
Points Per Play (PPA)
0.188
0.176
Success Rate
46.6%
45.4%
Explosiveness
1.262
1.195
Line Yards Per Carry
3.1
3.0
Second Level Yards
1.1
1.2
Open Field Yards
0.9
1.4
Standard Down Success Rate
49.3%
48.4%
Passing Down Success Rate
40.7%
37.3%
Points Per Opportunity
3.667
2.710
Average Starting Field Position
72.0
73.2
Power Success Rate
69.0%
75.8%
Stuff Rate (Lower is Better)
20.1%
16.3%

Defensive Performance Metrics

Metric
Purdue
Northwestern
Opponent PPA Allowed
0.231
0.183
Opponent Success Rate Allowed
42.1%
42.1%
Explosiveness Allowed
1.360
1.285
Line Yards Allowed
3.0
3.4
Second Level Yards Allowed
1.0
1.2
Open Field Yards Allowed
0.8
1.9
Standard Down Success Rate Allowed
49.0%
46.6%
Passing Down Success Rate Allowed
26.4%
32.4%
Points Per Opportunity Allowed
3.969
3.138
Average Field Position Given
73.3
70.6
Power Success Rate Allowed
66.7%
70.0%
Stuff Rate (Higher is Better)
21.8%
15.3%

Havoc Metrics

Metric
Purdue
Northwestern
Total Havoc Created (Defense)
16.6%
14.3%
Front Seven Havoc Created
10.5%
7.3%
DB Havoc Created
6.1%
7.0%
Total Havoc Allowed (Offense)
15.1%
14.0%

Team Efficiency Analysis

Team Efficiency Comparison

Efficiency scores combine ELO ratings with EPA performance metrics. Position shows offensive vs defensive strengths relative to all FBS teams.

Purdue

0.0
Offense: 0.0
Defense: 0.0
VS
Even Matchup

Northwestern

0.0
Offense: 0.0
Defense: 0.0

ELO Rating Analysis

ELO ratings provide a comprehensive measure of team strength based on historical performance and strength of schedule.

Purdue ELO

1314

Northwestern ELO

1510

Game Information

Season Type: Regular
Conference Game: Yes
Game Time: