Game-by-game results and against-the-spread performance
Line Analysis: Market Line: -3 | Our Predicted Line: -4.5 | Edge: 1.5 points
Northwestern's 196-point Elo advantage and slightly better defensive efficiency metrics suggest they should be favored by more than 3 points. The adjusted EPA numbers show minimal offensive differences, but Northwestern's defensive edge and home field make them undervalued at this line.
Northwestern is getting a favorable line here as just 3-point home favorites against a Purdue team that has struggled significantly this season. The Wildcats are clearly the better team based on overall strength metrics, with a major advantage in team ratings that suggests they should be favored by more than a field goal. Purdue's defense has been particularly problematic this year, allowing opponents to move the ball effectively in key situations, while Northwestern has been more solid on that side of the ball. The home field advantage in this Big Ten matchup should provide additional value for Northwestern, especially in what projects to be a lower-scoring affair. Getting Northwestern at only -3 when they appear to be the clearly superior team represents solid value in this conference game.
2024 Season Performance Analysis
Efficiency scores combine ELO ratings with EPA performance metrics. Position shows offensive vs defensive strengths relative to all FBS teams.
ELO ratings provide a comprehensive measure of team strength based on historical performance and strength of schedule.