Know The Points

Week 8 • 2025 Season

Missouri

SEC
@

Auburn

SEC
Jordan-Hare Stadium

Season Records

Game-by-game results and against-the-spread performance

Missouri
5-1 (3-2 ATS)
W1
vs Central Arkansas
6-61
W
W
W2
vs Kansas
31-42
W
W
W3
vs Louisiana
10-52
W
W
W4
vs South Carolina
20-29
W
L
W5
vs Massachusetts
6-42
W
L
W7
vs Alabama
27-24
L
N/A
Auburn
3-3 (1-2 ATS)
W1
@ Baylor
38-24
W
W
W2
vs Ball State
3-42
W
L
W3
vs South Alabama
15-31
W
L
W4
@ Oklahoma
17-24
L
N/A
W5
@ Texas A&M
10-16
L
N/A
W7
vs Georgia
20-10
L
N/A

Current Betting Lines

DraftKings

Missouri -1.5 O/U 43.5 Auburn +102 | Missouri -122

Bovada

Missouri -1.5 O/U 43.5 Auburn -115 | Missouri -105

ESPN Bet

Missouri -1.5 O/U 43.5 Auburn -105 | Missouri -120

Expert Betting Analysis

Our Recommendation: MODERATE BET (Confidence: 7/10)

Recommended Bet: Missouri -1.5

Line Analysis: Market Line: -1.5 | Our Predicted Line: -4.2 | Edge: 2.7 points

Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

  • Adjusted EPA Advantage: Missouri has significant edge in adjusted total EPA (0.235 vs 0.181) and both passing and rushing efficiency when accounting for competition strength
  • Success Rate Edge: Missouri shows better adjusted success rates overall (46.7% vs 45.5%) with particular advantage on passing downs (34.5% vs 28.1%)
  • Defensive Efficiency: Both teams allow similar EPA, but Missouri's defense has created more havoc (22.3% vs 16.6%) suggesting more game-changing plays
  • Elo Rating Gap: Missouri enters with 104-point Elo advantage (1788 vs 1684), indicating stronger overall program performance

Risk Factors to Consider:

  • Road game for Missouri in hostile SEC environment
  • Auburn's home field advantage could neutralize small spread

Technical Analysis:

Missouri holds clear advantages in adjusted EPA metrics across all phases (0.235 vs 0.181 total), superior success rates on crucial passing downs, and maintains a significant 104-point Elo edge. The Tigers' improved efficiency from last season combined with better havoc rates suggests they should be favored by 3-4 points rather than laying just 1.5.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

Missouri comes into this SEC showdown getting just 1.5 points on the road, and that looks like tremendous value based on how these teams have performed when you account for the quality of their competition. The Tigers have been significantly more efficient moving the ball on both the ground and through the air compared to Auburn, showing they're the stronger team overall despite playing a tougher schedule. Missouri's offense has been explosive this season, averaging over 5 points per scoring opportunity while Auburn has struggled to create big plays consistently against quality opponents. The Tigers' defense has also been more disruptive, creating havoc on over 22% of plays compared to Auburn's 16%, which should lead to more short fields and easy scoring chances. Getting Missouri at essentially a pick'em game when they appear to be the better team by a field goal or more makes this spread too good to pass up.

Detailed Team Comparison

2024 Season Performance Analysis

Offensive Performance Metrics

Metric
Missouri
Auburn
Points Per Play (PPA)
0.358
0.179
Success Rate
53.0%
43.7%
Explosiveness
1.205
1.095
Line Yards Per Carry
3.6
3.0
Second Level Yards
1.4
1.1
Open Field Yards
2.1
1.3
Standard Down Success Rate
55.3%
52.1%
Passing Down Success Rate
45.2%
22.8%
Points Per Opportunity
5.116
4.704
Average Starting Field Position
71.5
73.5
Power Success Rate
91.2%
88.6%
Stuff Rate (Lower is Better)
14.7%
16.7%

Defensive Performance Metrics

Metric
Missouri
Auburn
Opponent PPA Allowed
0.018
0.067
Opponent Success Rate Allowed
33.2%
34.9%
Explosiveness Allowed
1.278
1.321
Line Yards Allowed
2.6
1.8
Second Level Yards Allowed
0.8
0.7
Open Field Yards Allowed
0.8
0.6
Standard Down Success Rate Allowed
39.0%
41.1%
Passing Down Success Rate Allowed
22.8%
23.7%
Points Per Opportunity Allowed
4.050
3.242
Average Field Position Given
71.6
70.7
Power Success Rate Allowed
52.9%
70.0%
Stuff Rate (Higher is Better)
23.8%
30.9%

Havoc Metrics

Metric
Missouri
Auburn
Total Havoc Created (Defense)
22.3%
16.6%
Front Seven Havoc Created
14.1%
12.8%
DB Havoc Created
8.2%
3.8%
Total Havoc Allowed (Offense)
10.8%
15.5%

Team Efficiency Analysis

Team Efficiency Comparison

Efficiency scores combine ELO ratings with EPA performance metrics. Position shows offensive vs defensive strengths relative to all FBS teams.

Missouri

0.0
Offense: 0.0
Defense: 0.0
VS
Even Matchup

Auburn

0.0
Offense: 0.0
Defense: 0.0

ELO Rating Analysis

ELO ratings provide a comprehensive measure of team strength based on historical performance and strength of schedule.

Missouri ELO

1788

Auburn ELO

1684

Game Information

Season Type: Regular
Conference Game: Yes
Game Time: