Game-by-game results and against-the-spread performance
Line Analysis: Market Line: -1.5 | Our Predicted Line: -4.2 | Edge: 2.7 points
Missouri holds clear advantages in adjusted EPA metrics across all phases (0.235 vs 0.181 total), superior success rates on crucial passing downs, and maintains a significant 104-point Elo edge. The Tigers' improved efficiency from last season combined with better havoc rates suggests they should be favored by 3-4 points rather than laying just 1.5.
Missouri comes into this SEC showdown getting just 1.5 points on the road, and that looks like tremendous value based on how these teams have performed when you account for the quality of their competition. The Tigers have been significantly more efficient moving the ball on both the ground and through the air compared to Auburn, showing they're the stronger team overall despite playing a tougher schedule. Missouri's offense has been explosive this season, averaging over 5 points per scoring opportunity while Auburn has struggled to create big plays consistently against quality opponents. The Tigers' defense has also been more disruptive, creating havoc on over 22% of plays compared to Auburn's 16%, which should lead to more short fields and easy scoring chances. Getting Missouri at essentially a pick'em game when they appear to be the better team by a field goal or more makes this spread too good to pass up.
2024 Season Performance Analysis
Efficiency scores combine ELO ratings with EPA performance metrics. Position shows offensive vs defensive strengths relative to all FBS teams.
ELO ratings provide a comprehensive measure of team strength based on historical performance and strength of schedule.