Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Insufficient opponent data: Cannot properly evaluate Chattanooga's capabilities as FCS team with no advanced metrics
• Memphis roster turnover: Only 11.9% production returning creates massive uncertainty in Week 1 performance
• Large spread risk: 30.5 points is substantial for any team with new personnel in season opener

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Massive roster turnover for Memphis
• FCS opponent strength unknown
• Week 1 unpredictability
• Large spread with unproven units

Technical Analysis:

Insufficient data for proper analysis due to FCS opponent lack of metrics and Memphis returning only 11.9% of production. Large 30.5-point spread creates unfavorable risk-reward scenario in Week 1.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

This Memphis team is laying over 30 points in their season opener, but they're basically fielding an entirely new squad after losing nearly 90% of their production from last season. While Memphis should be the better team as an FBS program, asking them to cover such a massive spread with so many new faces is a tall order in Week 1. We simply don't have enough reliable information about how either team will perform, especially Chattanooga as an FCS opponent. Season openers are notoriously unpredictable, and teams often struggle to gel early in the year regardless of talent level. Without better data on both teams' current capabilities, this is a spot where patience is the better approach than forcing a bet on an uncertain situation.