Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Adjusted EPA advantage: Nebraska has significant edges on both offense (0.196 vs 0.127) and defense (allows 0.138 vs 0.192)
• Success rate differential: Nebraska converts at higher rates while limiting opponent success better than Minnesota
• Elo rating gap: 165-point Elo advantage suggests Nebraska is substantially stronger team

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Road game in Big Ten conference play
• Minnesota playing at home could keep game closer

Technical Analysis:

Nebraska's superior adjusted EPA metrics on both sides of the ball (0.196 vs 0.127 offense, 0.138 vs 0.192 defense allowed) combined with the 165-point Elo advantage suggests they should win by 10+ points. Market line of 8 provides 2.5 points of value.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

Nebraska comes into this road game as a solid favorite, and the numbers suggest they should be able to cover the 8-point spread. When you account for the strength of opponents each team has faced, Nebraska has been much more effective moving the ball and stopping their opponents compared to Minnesota this season. The Cornhuskers have been particularly impressive on defense, allowing opponents far fewer successful plays than Minnesota has been able to manage. Minnesota struggled significantly last season and hasn't shown major improvement in their underlying performance metrics this year, while Nebraska appears to be the clearly superior team. Getting Nebraska at only 8 points on the road looks like solid value given their statistical advantages across the board.