Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Adjusted EPA Advantage: New Mexico shows significantly better adjusted EPA (0.18 vs 0.07) indicating superior offensive efficiency against similar competition
• Success Rate Differential: New Mexico maintains higher adjusted success rate (0.44 vs 0.35) while allowing lower success rate to opponents
• ELO Rating Gap: 215-point ELO advantage (1403 vs 1188) suggests New Mexico is substantially stronger overall
• Home Field Advantage: New Mexico playing at home provides additional 3-point advantage in familiar environment

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Nevada has slightly better returning production (65.8% vs 12.5%)
• Large spread creates potential for backdoor cover situations

Technical Analysis:

New Mexico shows clear statistical superiority with adjusted EPA of 0.18 vs Nevada's 0.07, better success rates (0.44 vs 0.35), and a massive 215-point ELO advantage. The 11.5-point spread appears to undervalue New Mexico's home field advantage combined with their significant efficiency edge across all opponent-adjusted metrics.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

New Mexico looks significantly undervalued getting only 11.5 points to give at home against Nevada in this Mountain West matchup. When you account for the quality of competition each team has faced, New Mexico has been much more efficient moving the ball and controlling games this season, showing they're clearly the superior team. Nevada has struggled offensively with negative overall production per play, while New Mexico has been consistently productive on both sides of the ball throughout the year. The computer rankings have New Mexico rated over 200 points higher than Nevada, which typically translates to about a 15-point difference on a neutral field, and they get home field advantage on top of that. With the market only asking New Mexico to win by 11.5 points, this spread seems to underestimate the true talent gap between these programs.