Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Roster Continuity Gap: Arizona returns 56% of production vs Hawaii's 46%, but Arizona lost 62% of receiving production creating major passing game concerns
• ELO Rating Discrepancy vs Market: 111-point ELO difference suggests ~7-8 point spread, but market has moved to nearly 15 points
• Defensive Efficiency Comparison: Hawaii's defense allowed 0.19 PPA vs Arizona's 0.23 PPA, showing Hawaii was more efficient defensively
• Market Overreaction: Line moved from -10.5 to -15.5 at some books, indicating potential overadjustment for conference perception

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Week 1 volatility with new players and schemes
• Arizona's home field advantage in desert heat

Technical Analysis:

ELO ratings suggest an 8-point spread but market is at 14.7. Arizona's major receiving production losses (62% departed) create early season vulnerability against a Hawaii defense that was more efficient in 2024. Market appears to be overadjusting based on conference perception rather than underlying team metrics.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

Arizona is being asked to cover two touchdowns against a Hawaii team that actually played better defense last season and has a respectable returning core. The Wildcats lost over 60% of their receiving production from last year, which could create serious problems in their passing game early in the season. Hawaii's defense was actually more efficient than Arizona's last year, allowing fewer big plays and generating more pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The betting market seems to be overvaluing Arizona's move to the Big 12 and underestimating Hawaii's ability to keep this game competitive on the road. Getting two full touchdowns with a team that should be able to move the ball and keep pace feels like tremendous value in what projects to be a much closer game than the spread suggests.