Key Factors Supporting This Pick:

• Offensive Efficiency Edge: Arizona shows superior adjusted EPA (0.127 vs 0.117) and success rate (41.0% vs 38.4%) indicating better overall offensive performance
• Defensive Performance: Arizona allows significantly less total EPA (0.126 vs 0.156) and has better success rate defense, showing clearer defensive advantage
• Rushing Attack Superiority: Arizona dominates in rushing metrics with 3.00 adjusted line yards vs Houston's 2.68, creating ground game advantage
• Line Movement: Line has moved from Arizona -2.5 to -1.5, suggesting sharp money may be on Houston, but fundamentals favor Arizona

Risk Factors to Consider:

• Very close ELO ratings (1473 vs 1477) suggest teams are evenly matched
• Houston playing at home with slight home field advantage
• Low total (45.5) suggests defensive game where variance could be high

Technical Analysis:

Arizona shows clear statistical advantages in adjusted EPA on both sides of the ball (0.127 vs 0.117 offense, 0.126 vs 0.156 defense allowed). Their rushing attack metrics are significantly superior (3.00 vs 2.68 line yards) while maintaining better overall success rates. The 1.7-point edge suggests value on Arizona at current number.

Why This Pick Makes Sense:

Arizona comes into this road game as small 1.5-point favorites, and the numbers suggest they should be laying closer to a field goal. The Wildcats have been more efficient moving the ball this season when accounting for strength of schedule, posting better overall offensive numbers than Houston across most key metrics. Arizona's ground game has been particularly impressive, averaging over 3 yards per carry in line yards compared to Houston's 2.7, which should help them control the game flow. Defensively, Arizona has been the better unit this year, allowing fewer big plays and maintaining better success rates against opposing offenses than the Cougars. While Houston has home field advantage, Arizona's statistical edges in both phases suggest they're the better team and should be able to cover the small spread on the road.